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I'm down for riding next weekend if anyone's game and is still in the mood after all the midweek sessions... Just got back from Baker and it was deep, light and scary... had a close call with avy in the bc this morning. I'm jonesin for Hood and the spots I know and love. Saturday or Sunday, don't matter.

Actually, how about Tilly Jane this weekend? Anyone down? I'm probably staying there on Saturday night no matter what. You can book your spot by going to recreation.gov and searching 'Tilly Jane.'

copied and pasted from NWAC

"strong winds and very slow warming likely over the next 48 hours, this almost perfect storm of avalanche condtions should create increasingly large and very dangerous avalanches in many areas".

avalanche warnings are in place yo.

"natural and human triggered avalanches should become certain and where large to very large avalanches should become likely...with some natural or triggered slides likely reaching up to 6 to 10 feet or more."

Just looking at Meadows and Timberline's website. Sounds like the conditions are turning in a nonfavorable direction. Meadows reported rain and fresh powder becoming heavy. Hopefully this is a just temporary and change back to snow tonight. I would hate to see all that fresh powder go to waste...

Patrick, I actually think it's a good thing. Some rain could help increase bonding of the new snow, and decrease the avy risk for this weekend. I got my eyes glued to NWAC for the next few days. I'm going to TJ anyway tho, fuck it I'll just do tree runs if the avy risk is too high. This much new snow is too good to miss out on!

Powder fever...



I disagree... in my opinion of course. It would take quite a bit of swe to perculate all the way through five feet of snow to bond to the Ice layer that stuff is releasing on. This is the perfect upside down storm and rain is going to help create an even more consolidated slab above that weak layer. I imagine strong temp gradients and poor bonding to stick around for a minute. Now the rain may help some stuff to release which could work in your favor but I would be super cautious if I were you.

Saftey First.

You might want to check out the recent trip report on TAY. Sounds like it was spotty coverage in some areas and wind effected.

In no way shape or form would the rain help increase bonding. You really need to do more research and look into what you are talking about. This is scary.

JL

Initially I would expect rain to increase the potential for slides as it would weigh down the top layer even more over the weaker layers. But as the water percolates through the layers, wouldn't it help bond the weaker top layers as the water freezes when the temps drop?

Anyway, even having made very conservative decisions, I just had a scare on Monday in the N. Cascades and will not be taking any kind of risk. I'm very interested to dig into the snow this weekend and find out what's going on, but am anticipating lots of tree runs in the near future.

i can understand where jefe is coming from but rain "weighing down" the snow and compressing and bonding the layers is a process that would take a long time, like corn snow setting up freeze thaw style.

if the water hits that light snow in the snowpack its gonna "eat it up" creating an even weaker layer that i would imagine will be there for a few weeks, until those crystals break down and compact.

and youll have to dig a giant pit to even see this layer.

with weather being so active right now this will not happen anytime soon. snow level is gonna drop again this weekend so we will have a wrong side up snowpack with a right side up on top of it. mixed with various rain events in between. all i can say is it seems like it would be a big nasty avalanche with many layers it could release from.

but tilly jane is so mellow you couldnt get anything to slide if you wanted to. i know your affinity for polallie canyon though jefe, promise splitboard.com you'll stay outta there.

ha im just razzin you jefe. i know your smart enough to make wise decisions out there.