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 Post subject: Snow?!
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:13 pm 
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Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 1:31 pm
Posts: 13
Location: Reno, NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT TUE SEP 6 2005

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MAJOR CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY MOVES TO ERN NV WHILE THE POWERFUL TROF AND COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE NWRN US. GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN THE NORTHERN ZONES SO SOME INCREASE IN WIND IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS NOW ESTIMATED BY MOST MODELS TO SLAM THRU THE REGION WITH LITTLE RESISTANCE FRI NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO THE 7500-8500 FT RANGE IN THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C ARE INDICATED. MAX TEMPS FOR SAT WERE LOWERED BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND ARE PROBABLY STILL TOO WARM WHEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ARE ADDED TO THE MIX. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY END UP ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 DEGREES ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z GFS MODEL VERIFIES. SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS TAKE THE LOW CENTER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE BUT REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERCAST SKY OR RAIN FOR ERN CA-WRN NV...IN THIS CASE THE TEMPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE REACHED.
A BREAK OF ABOUT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT AND TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY MAY BE DRY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING REMAINS SO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE THICKNESS AND HEIGHT FALLS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS DRAMATIC THAN SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO TAP MORE MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TRAJECTORY IS MORE OVER WATER THAN WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW BUT LEANING MORE
TOWARD CHANCE CATEGORY IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS SUN-MON LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH ACTUAL HIGHS 10 OR MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST IF OVERCAST AND/OR PRECIP IS PERSISTENT. MJD


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2005 1:40 pm 
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Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 407
Location: S.F. Bay Area
Nice... First taste of winter... Not like it'll stick around or anything, but always cool to see snow falling up high... That is unless I'm up backpacking and it falls by the foot... Then it's not quite as "nice"...

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