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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008

SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN A LOT OF
CLOUDS AND THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST STARTS GOING DOWNHILL
AFTER THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER APPROACHING MONDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED ALONG WITH
GUIDANCE AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH EVEN WITH WAA AHEAD OF ANY SYSTEM THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE
PRIMARLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST OF ELEVATIONS. GOING FARTHER
INTO FANTASY LAND...THE JUST IN 12Z ECMWF IS HINTING THAT WE MAY SEE
A LITTLE PRE-TURKEY DAY SNOW EVENT ROUND THESE PARTS.

gobble, gobble...

sat nov 22

cold and windy today w/ temps in single digits to mid teens at elevation. 8-10" new snow over past several days from steady snow showers in the hills. dusting to a few inches elsewhere.

cold air should stick around thru nxt week w/ poss signif storm for mon PM thru tues PM. hi temps will be close to freezing in the valleys, but should stay all snow in the mtns.

stowe is now spinning the quad, not a bad opening day w/ the new snow.

looking to tour around spruce tomorrow w/ almost a foot of new, a ghost town by the looks today. winds should calm tonight w/ some poss breaks of sun tomorrow.

I skinned up the notch road on friday for some cardio, and found it nice and deep in places, but also very wind scoured in others. Anything lower elevation, out of the wind should be developing a good base.

i did a few laps on the quad yesterday and today.

more new snow saturday than expected, crowded as expected.

closed stuff is borderline, highly variable depending on wind exposure

gondi side looked like it got worked hard.

broke/sprained a finger strapping in to start the day today, go figure

Snow is pilling up around Jay... we were poking in the woods today trying to find new lines for this winter... Knee deep all-over with mid-thighs height as you get higher... Only down side is that it's super light... so you're snow pit is something like 16-18in of light champagne, 1-2in fo leaves and a nice mix of rocks and dirt... No backcountry riding yet... but things could change this week. All about elevation... only 2in down in the village of Jay!

cross-fingers for lots of snow this week!

that's what i found.

bailed on a big spruce tour over to sterling pond... it looked beat. hit up chin clip instead, found a good foot of leeward deposits from stong NW winds out of underhill sat and sun.



other reports confirm jay made out w/ over two feet this week.
http://www.jaypeakresort.com/images/gal ... /lift3.jpg

hope tonight's storm stays COLD...

ouch.

Talk at Stowe today was 80% chance that conditions suck tomorrow, 20% chance of Epic November Pow Day. The natural snow makes anything openable more fun/better conditions, but, similar to Jay, anything that has no snowmaking on it is still too light/too little base, to be a great idea. Water bars could eat you alive, but grassier areas would be doable.

Keep in mind that now that the mountain is open, if you are going to tour, you need to stay away from any area being patrolled, or risk getting hassled big-time.

I'll be out of town till Friday night, but happy to update Stowe conditions then. Word on the street is that Little Spruce might open on Thanksgiving, so the above warning will soon apply there too.

Shep

not anymore...

Tue Nov 25 2:00PM

ALL SNOW at elevation today and heavy, another 8"++ new mid-mountain and higher on mansfield and STILL DUMPING. base is now saturated which will make bottoming out less likely, especially off-piste. high temps 30-32 on the hill today. looking like we may end up w/ a foot+ by late tonight if lucky. go get some.

jay has 3-5" new as of 1:30 today, but open only weekends right now.

snow continues thru upcoming w/e. long term forecast looks really really GOOD...

Similar to what I heard. made the decision not to ride tomorrow morning 'cause it's supposed to get a lot colder tonight, and all the water in today's snow will lock up. Bad for riding tomorrow. Good for riding in a few days, as we get more snow on top of it. If we avoid a nasty warm up, we may have just gotten our critical mass of base snow. (please Ullr, don't smite me!)

Shep

Broken. Heelstrap buckles can apparently be hazardous to your health.

Holiday travel will keep me off the mtn this week (probably a good thing)

Shep, I've never had a problem with patrol skinning before the lifts turn in the AM. Is this policy changing?

not sure why things wouldn't be the same as they've always been... we've already had this conversation w/ rod kessler, VP mtn ops years ago and got a yellow light. not green, but also not red. it simply comes down to respect and common sense.

he said during operational hours, stay away from ALL busy areas and almost all of mansfield for the most part. skinning up mansfield before lifts spin in am was cool w/ him but we must stay clear of any snowcats and mtn operations when crossing paths. again, try to pick the road less traveled. big spruce and the toll road seemed appropriate ascent routes, but not as direct per say. i stay on periphery trails that are often not groomed. and stay to the side of trails, obviously.

my 2 cents...

back on topic...

conditions Fri Nov 28

rode in bounds at $teaux this am on a solid board. snow showers continue, temps in 20s. a new inch or two like the past few days. that's about it.

still, staying cold and nxt poss precip system sunday pm into this monday. stay tuned.