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One thing I've loved about this forum is its lack of hate & political rants. I hope I'm not headed there with this post....but....am really curious of others opinions in here as there are many that post here who's opinions I respect and also like the wide ranging ages & backgrounds of the posters here.

With the recent turmoil in the stock market and the politics surrounding the turmoil my thoughts are frequently leading to the thinking that we're headed for a REAL long term economic depression. I think it boils down to too much debt at ALL levels, personal>corporate>government which has reached a boiling point that can't be sustained without a contraction. I'm not looking to blame as I see there being plenty to go around.

My big questions are?:
Am I being way too pessimistic? Does anyone else see the current turn of events as gloomy as I do?

With respect to splitboarding - does this economic turn result in a lot more splitters in the backcountry as riding resorts becomes more cost prohibitive or will it be less - because - if you're not geared up already you won't be able to afford to gear up in the near future?

With respect to splitboarding - if I'm right - does this restrict gear progression in our sport for years?, for months?, for weeks?

Has anyone else reconsidered this season's plans for large trips or purchases yet? Me - I was pretty locked into a trip to AK and a fly-out onto the Juneau Icefields for 6 days but am thinking I better just forget about it.

I agree with everything you said above.


I don't think you're being very pessimistic. Very realistic too me. Not pretty to think about as I'm raising three little kids but in the long run it will make us stronger.



I have nothing to base my opinion on but I don't see an increase in splitters because of the downturn rather because of the demographics of snowboarders. I know you're a bit older Lew but the first generation snowboarders are in the 35 years old range. Very few of them started on boards but switched to boarding or started boarding because they loved skating, surfing, neon, etc. This generation is most of the folks on this board and who I see in the backcountry. Well, there are tons and tons of kick ass snowboarders in the 25-30 that have boarding there whole life and will get the itch for wild snow.


I have no clue about this one except that there is a huge desire for a split specific soft boot with a vibram sole.


I had been planning to head to central BC for a week or so but busy work (which is a good thing I guess with the economic situation) will keep me from it this year. I'd be willing to bet that all my trips will be within between Mammoth Mountain and Mt. Shasta this year.

I don't foresee much effect...we are a relatively fringe group, that wouldn't normally get much in the way of investment in any case.

Why do you want to forget it? Are your job prospects such that you see yourself un-employed in the near future? This is the only reason I'd postpone a trip like that. Flights are only going to get more expensive (if you believe the peak oil types). My view is: if you can afford it now, go...'cause if the pessimists are right you might not see another chance. If they're wrong, which is likely, then you can always do a second trip in the future.
Another benefit if they're right...you'll have some cool stories to tell the kids

Good read Lewmt. I've been able to pick up on some good deals because of the so-called recession.
The only thing I'm ticked about is Ecobrad planning a trip to the interior BC and not including me.

I see how it is. Dick.




j/k When are we going to hang? I'll be pulling the sleds out to prep end of the month.

Dude, all I ever hear from you is how busy work is. I'm always ready to play. Sherman Pass when the snow falls?

Read this someplace else on the net - thought it'd fit well here:
"If you had purchased $1,000 of AIG stock one year ago, you would now have $42 left.

With Lehman, you would have $6.60 left.

With Fannie or Freddie, you would have less than $5 left.

But... if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all of it, and then turned in the cans for the aluminum recycling refund, you would have $214.

Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle."

Maybe buy stock in Vaseline also - after this "bailout" thing I think everybody is going to need heaps of it.

A downturn may add to the numbers who are/were already in the backcountry or were thinking of it. The lift ticket cost versus the entry price into splitting may make some of us choose one completely over the other. Dunno, just thoughts. We could be in for a long one, just cannot tell yet. I don't buy completely into the gloomsayers yet, but economically there are some big issues that need to be dealt with NOW, many lack the courage to do it, that could take it all down. Personally, we can all make some better choices. I have NO debt, no car/motorcycle payments, and only a mortgage to pay. 3 years ago, my wife and I made the choice to live responsibly with finances, paid our debt, and am reasonably free. I have personally seen too many people upside down in cars, over their heads with credit cards, and when the economy turns on them, even for a short time, they are in trouble. Then they spend twice as long getting out of it as they were in it. The course I recommend is to stop with the credit thing, pay it off, get your personal finances in line, then help others as you see the need, because if you do the first, you can then do the other. Sorry, gotta get off of this box now!

wow first post in a long time for me, and here it goes.

Lew, you are spot on. this is the reality. december will be grim, consumer spending way down-- will force many businesses into the red for the year, forcing a tail spin on global economy, no more chinese trinkets, no more black monday, DOW will be below 4000 sometime next year. too much debt, too much greed, we are headed for lean days. this is the sound of many bubbles imploding.

are you a HP'er btw? i think we frequent the same blogs.

splitboards will be a thing of the past in 3 years. too costly to build, and no one to buy. take good care of your equipment and move close to the mountains. plenty of powder, but no avy forecasts due to lack of funding.

(of course, i could be completely wrong)

here in canada they're still telling us that we are shielded from the US market implosion by our conservative govt policies... and so far it is somewhat true. but when a giant hits the ground, a lot of people will be trapped underneath it.

i dont think the current doom scenario will get many more splitters into the BC. Anyone new into it will be thinking "whoa, 1500$ just for basic split and avi gear? i cant afford that - i better just buy a pass for 800$ " (never mind that gear lasts for many seasons - i've tried to explain that to several people and they all think I'M the retarded one) .

If you had any worries there might be some corruption running amok this should relieve those fears
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aatlky_cH.tY&refer=worldwide

Maybe a downturn in the economy isn't all bad
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4AA65820081111?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=23&sp=true

heh. they didn't mention him, but I thought that place was partly owned by Greg Lemond. maybe he sold out at some point... or maybe I'm totally off-base.

Shep

The bad thing is, and this has been talked about, is that the club filing for chapter 11 mostly affects the hard working people and not the super rich. I have a lot of good friends who will be losing lots of money because these douchebags are able to hide behind the law. Oh well just another example of the poor getting poorer.