Splitboard.com Forums

The World's first exclusive splitboard discussion forums






It is currently Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:24 pm

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 8 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Winter 2012/13 ENSO
PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2012 8:23 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:16 am
Posts: 517
Location: Salida, Flagstaff
Looking ahead to next winter in the northern hemisphere, NOAA climate forecasters report low probabilities for La Nina conditions developing in the later half of 2012 and about equal probabilities for neutral or El Nino conditions.

See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Image

_________________
Craig Kelly is my co-pilot
195 Glissade Big Gun
187 Donek Custom Split
181 Venture Storm Solid and Split
173 Rossi Race DIY Swallowtail Split


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter 2012/13 ENSO
PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2012 1:36 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 6:09 am
Posts: 70
Location: Torino, Western Alps
About Alps the neutral condition of ENSO are good because it allows a regular and constant flow of Atlantic perturbed with heavy snow. :bananas:
By NINA there are too many conflicts, it goes from very cold to very hot and the snow falls only in parts exposed (last winter) :nononno:
When there is NINO strong the snow comes, but in a more autumn and winter. There are exceptions such as the year extraordinary 08/09 :thatrocks:

_________________
** Giuliano Boccardi **

...Splitboarding is art...


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter 2012/13 ENSO
PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2012 8:00 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:44 pm
Posts: 540
Location: Flagstaff, AZ
Nice, been thinking about this lately. Best news we've seen for a couple years. I'm stockpiling my leave time already. My fingers are crossed, it's not even July yet.

Mighty dry out there, dusty trails.

_________________
"Do not follow where the path may lead. Go where there is no path... and leave a trail." --Today's fortune cookie.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter 2012/13 ENSO
PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:05 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:32 am
Posts: 184
Location: Northern NM
ricorides wrote:
Nice, been thinking about this lately. Best news we've seen for a couple years. I'm stockpiling my leave time already. My fingers are crossed, it's not even July yet.

Mighty dry out there, dusty trails.


I've been watching the ENSO forecasts closely as well. I'm guessing Flagstaff gets the same ENSO effects as here in NNM. This year we got lucky, La Nina let us off the hook with storms tracking further south than normal. Taos Ski Valley was all cocky about it, advertising discounts to folks with passes from CO resorts. What I don't understand is why Tahoe and the PNW had such a dry season this year. I thought La Nina favored them.
The good news for me is that I'm close enough to the San Juans that I can find snow up there no matter the ENSO conditions.

_________________
Venture Zephyr 168/26
furberg 167


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter 2012/13 ENSO
PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2012 1:58 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2011 6:15 pm
Posts: 682
Location: Tahoma, Ca
el nino would favor tahoe and south...la nina dumps on PNW and it did...we were above average for sure, there is still 100+ inches on the ground at 6,000 ft.

_________________
www.tahoemobileskirentals.com


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter 2012/13 ENSO
PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2012 7:31 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:09 pm
Posts: 684
Location: white room
Actually, Tahoe sits right in the middle, so either situation could have an effect on weather here. Tahoe's all time biggest and smallest snow years were La Nina years, and there have also been big and small El Nino years. Fortunately, even in one of the weakest winters ever in Tahoe, there was still pow to be had.

_________________
Ridin' Dirty


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter 2012/13 ENSO
PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2012 8:50 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:16 am
Posts: 517
Location: Salida, Flagstaff
Yeah, what this means for any particular place in any particular season is a can of worms; broad trends are often riddled with lots of variability. Here's a study that delves into how regional precipitation trends and variability relate (or don't relate) to different phases: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF983.1

_________________
Craig Kelly is my co-pilot
195 Glissade Big Gun
187 Donek Custom Split
181 Venture Storm Solid and Split
173 Rossi Race DIY Swallowtail Split


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter 2012/13 ENSO
PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:28 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:32 am
Posts: 184
Location: Northern NM
Taylor wrote:
Yeah, what this means for any particular place in any particular season is a can of worms; broad trends are often riddled with lots of variability. Here's a study that delves into how regional precipitation trends and variability relate (or don't relate) to different phases: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF983.1

Thanks, interesting read. I've only been here 3 years but I was surprised by the variation in the southwest (supposedly Nino wet/ Nina dry). I'm told 2009-10, El Nino, was the best season in a decade, then 2010-11 was a horrible La Nina year with something like half of average snowfall. Then this season was La Nina as well and we were right on average.

_________________
Venture Zephyr 168/26
furberg 167


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 8 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baidu [Spider], D-GREEN, Exabot [Bot], Gormley Green and 13 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  





Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group