Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2011 4:27 pm Posts: 630 Location: Rainier Beach
I know a lot of you guys read TAY so have probably already seen this. For those who haven't, it's worth a read both for the OP's admittance of bad decision making and what went into that, as well as some very constructive comments.
These guys got incredibly lucky. They came a few feet away from being featured in the next New York Times article about bad decision making in avalanche terrain.
The real lesson here is that they should never have been out there at all. You can pick apart NWAC's forecast, but everyone who uses the backcountry should know that 10 feet of snow in 2 weeks would make for some dicey conditions.
Stay safe people! We've already lost way too many comrades this year.
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2008 9:10 pm Posts: 1433 Location: UT
Always happy to see people humbly put their stories out there not matter the circumstances.
For the benefit of the newer splitters its important to understand something about avy forecast centers; their daily forecasts are based on seasonal observations in combination with the prior days field work and expected overnight weather.
These folks aren't out in the middle of the night doings obs for the following days forecast
They are making informed predictions as to the probable conditions (e.g. a forecast). So what you see may not match what was forecast - all the more reason to do your own forecasting and verify against the avy center and the local community obs as the season unfolds.