Splitboard.com Forums

The World's first exclusive splitboard discussion forums






It is currently Fri Nov 28, 2014 6:37 pm

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 11 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Fri Aug 08, 2014 12:02 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:16 am
Posts: 546
Location: Salida, Flagstaff
Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html

Sep-Oct-Nov 2014
Image

Oct-Nov-Dec 2014
Image

Nov-Dec-Jan 2014-15
Image

Dec-Jan-Feb 2014-15
Image

Jan-Feb-Mar 2015
Image

Feb-Mar-Apr 2015
Image

_________________
Craig Kelly is my co-pilot
195 Glissade Big Gun
187 Donek Custom Split
181 Venture Storm Solid and Split
173 Rossi Race DIY Swallowtail Split


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:00 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:22 pm
Posts: 686
Location: Durango, CO
Looks like if they are right, we could line up pretty good in Silverton for Splitfest, and hopefully a good season (trails a bit below us, but hopefully we get it). Let's hope so, the past 3 seasons have been low snow, butt puckering most of the year, with a month or so of stability, and that's not that great. ::fingers crossed::

Taos should be good this year if this is the case.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2014 7:17 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:16 am
Posts: 546
Location: Salida, Flagstaff
Yeah the SW is overdue. These projections--the wet early fall in the southwest--reminds me of fall 2011... Lots of precip really early (like, September and October; monsoonal snow almost--same moisture source--not necessarily good news for snowpack later).

It will be interesting to see how El Niño plays out. These projections seem El Niño optimistic; a strong one (over 1.5 SST anomaly) is a sure bet for the southern Sierras, southern Rockies, Flag and New Mexico. Anything less is a crap shoot, at least by the historical stats.

As always, count 'em as they fall. Let's hope.

_________________
Craig Kelly is my co-pilot
195 Glissade Big Gun
187 Donek Custom Split
181 Venture Storm Solid and Split
173 Rossi Race DIY Swallowtail Split


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:22 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:07 pm
Posts: 367
Location: Green Mountains
Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html

"EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORED TO BE IN PLACE BY EARLY FALL, HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PACE OF
ONSET AND EVENTUAL INTENSITY HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED
FROM LAST MONTH, BUT THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
AT THIS POINT, AN EL NINO OF WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH IS MOST LIKELY."

They have backed off the el nino even further:
"The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter."
source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
We've got a long ways to go!! And I agree, it's been a shotty 3 years and we're due so there's my scientific insight. :twocents:


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:42 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 18, 2004 5:07 am
Posts: 620
Location: Montana
What would be really interesting is a chart or percentage of correct predictions from past years predictions. I bet its pitiful. Like 20% or less accuracy vs. reality. Why worry - it'll snow somewhere - plenty. Ride there.

_________________
2nd childhood euphoria


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:44 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:44 pm
Posts: 548
Location: Flagstaff, AZ
Thanks buddy you just jinxed it.

The first rule of fight club.......

_________________
"Do not follow where the path may lead. Go where there is no path... and leave a trail." --Today's fortune cookie.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:16 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:16 am
Posts: 546
Location: Salida, Flagstaff
Heh. Then you can come visit.

_________________
Craig Kelly is my co-pilot
195 Glissade Big Gun
187 Donek Custom Split
181 Venture Storm Solid and Split
173 Rossi Race DIY Swallowtail Split


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:32 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:44 pm
Posts: 548
Location: Flagstaff, AZ
You can count on it.

(Slow day at work, it's raining buckets again.)

_________________
"Do not follow where the path may lead. Go where there is no path... and leave a trail." --Today's fortune cookie.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:53 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri May 13, 2005 8:05 am
Posts: 1516
Location: 395
I'm pretty sure any forecast over 2 weeks out is a 100% wild ass guess (at least that's what granjero has told me in somewhat similar words). Those long range forecasts are worthless.

Even El Nino's are completely random:
Image

And now with chemtrails, man made global warming, the last 18 years of global cooling, the beginning of a new ice age, unprecedented low sun spot activity, haarp, fukishima, increasing volcanic activity, increasing wildfires, wildly increasing fireballs/meteors exploding in the atmostphere, and extra dimensional, alien influences WHO THE FUCK KNOWS! :lol:


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:22 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:59 am
Posts: 278
Location: Amsterdam
Anything longer than a 6 day forecast is basically nonsense. After 5 days, a weathermodel is only 50% accurate so it could go either way. The good news is, you'll be right 50% of the time too. :D So I predict lots of snow for Europe this season.
The only long term prediction you can sometimes make are based on very stable jetstream periods, but that doesn't happen very often on our side of the atlantic and will only get you about 10 days fairly accurate.

Anybody making a prediction longer than a week out is mostly pulling it out of his ass. It's fun to discuss it, but it doesn't mean anything.

_________________
http://splitfest.tumblr.com/
Flatland Splitfest


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Winter Precip 2014-15: NOAA Long Range Projections
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:11 pm 
Online
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:57 pm
Posts: 64
Location: Los Padres NF
All I know is Southern California (southwest) is due...period.

_________________
Be alert. Keep calm. Think clearly. Act decisively.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 11 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: TEX and 20 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  





Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group